Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP signals weigh on PLN – Commerzbank

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank describes NBP Governor Glapinski’s latest press conference as a net dovish surprise versus expectations for a clearer hike signal. Although he outlined conditions for tightening and dropped guidance of unchanged rates until mid-2027, he does not expect those conditions to be met by November. The Zloty weakened versus the Hungarian Forint as markets had been pricing a November hike baseline.

NBP signals conditional hikes, dampens November expectations

"Further to our last comment, in which we suggested that NBP governor Adam Glapinski might officially signal at this week’s press conference that rate hikes were on the cards, by contrast yesterday’s press conference produced a ‘net’ dovish surprise."

"Glapinski mentioned that NBP was ready to act if 1) second-round effects were to emerge or 2) November’s projections were to reveal a strong inflationary scenario."

"He also declined to repeat his September guidance that rates would probably remain unchanged until mid-2027, confirming that his stance had, indeed, changed to more hawkish."

"The crucial qualification was that Glapinski does not expect the conditions for a hike to be in place by November already."

"The zloty weakened against peers such as the Hungarian forint after the statements. This reaction was justified because the market’s baseline was fast becoming one of confirmed November rate hike."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)